Question

Explain the theory of Demographic Transition.

Answer 1

Demographic Transition is another important theory in demography. This theory was presented in the 1940s by the American Social Scientist Kingsley Davis. His theory was an optimistic one. This theory argued that population growth is related to all-round economic development. He showed that each community or society follows its own development model in accordance with its population growth. The Theory of Demographic Transition says there are three basic stages in population growth.

In the 1^st stage the society is not developed and the economic condition is backward. At this stage, both birth rate and death rate will be high. Therefore the growth in population will be small.

In the 2^nd stage i a transition stage. There is technological growth in the society and there is a big jump in the growth of population. The birth rate is high and the death rate is low. The growth in population will be very high.

The 3^rd and last sage start when there is extensive industrialization. At this stage, birth rate and death rate will below.

	Stage 1	Stage 2	Stage 3
Technology & Society	Low technology	Technology starts growing	Developed technology
Birth Rate & Death Rate	High birth rate High death rate	High birth rate Low death rate	Low birth rate Low death rate
Growth Rate	Low	High	Zero

It is during the transition between the 1^st and 3^rd stage there is high growth of population or population explosion: When disease control, public health care, and nutritious food bring down the death rate, the birth rate remains high. There is thus population, explosion. The society will take some time to get adjusted to the new situation. The nature of procreation that was in existence during the time of poverty and high death rate will take some time to get used to the new situation of technological progress and high longevity.

This kind of transition took place in Europe at the end of the 19^th century and the beginning of the 20^th. This kind of transition (changing the nature of procreation to suit the new circumstances) is also followed by the developing nations. These nations are trying hard to reduce the birth rate as deaths are getting reduced. The transition stage is not yet complete in India. Although death rate is drastically reduced, it has not been possible to reduce birth rate drastically.