Question

It is estimated that an activity can be assigned an optimistic duration of 16 days, a pessimistic duration of 28 days and a most likely duration of 19 days. What is the expected duration for this activity?
1. 20 days
2. 19 days
3. 22 days
4. 18 days 

Answer 1

Correct Answer - Option 1 : 20 days

Concept:

Expected duration \(\left( {{t_e}} \right) = \frac{{{t_0} + 4{t_m} + {t_p}}}{6}\)

Where, t₀ = optimistic duration

t_m = Most likely duration

t_p = Pessimistic duration

Calculation:

t₀ = 16 days, t_p = 28 days, t_m = 19 days

\({t_e} = \frac{{{t_0} + 4{t_m} + {t_p}}}{6} = \frac{{16 + \left( {4 \times 19} \right) + 28}}{6}\) 

\( = \frac{{16 + 76 + 28}}{6} = \frac{{120}}{6} = 20\;days\)