Correct Answer - Option 4 : Delphi method
Explanation:
Forecasting:
Forecasting is the prediction of future sales or demand for a particular product in the market. Forecasts can be made by using the past data of a product.
It can be done in two ways
i) Qualitative Technique:
This approach is used for new product and used for long term forecasting. In this approach, there is no need for any data.
Opinion survey:
- In this method, opinions are collected from the customer, retailer and distributor regarding the demand pattern of the product.
Market trial:
- It is applied for new product and in this case, a product is introduced between a limited population in the form of a free sample.
- It is applied for low-cost products like toothpaste, chocolate, coldrinks etc.
Market research:
- In this method, the work of survey is assigned to an external marketing agency and the purpose of the research is to collect information regarding the demand of a product and the various factors which influence the demand like customer income, location, quality, quantity etc are required to get the forecast.
Delphi technique:
- This technique is used to make more realistic judgemental methods by minimizing bias.
- In this method, a panel of experts (including decision-makers, staff personnel, and respondents) is asked sequential questions.
- It is the step by step procedure and the final forecast is obtained by the common opinion of all the experts.
ii) Quantitative Technique:
This is used to forecast the demand for the existing product for short term
Here some previous data are given and based on that forecasting is done.
- Simple Moving Average Method
- Weighted Moving Average Method
- Simple Exponential Smoothing Method
- Trend Line Estimate or Linear Regression Method