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If the expected time for completion of a project is 10 days with a standard deviation of 2 days, the anticipated time of completion of the project with 99.9% probability is
1. 16 days
2. 12 days
3. 10 days
4. 6 days

1 Answer

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Best answer
Correct Answer - Option 1 : 16 days

Concept:

Probability can be calculated by using probability factor (Z) which is defined as,

\(Z = \frac{{{T_s} - {T_e}}}{σ }\)

Where, Ts = Schedule completion time

Te = Expected completion time

σ = Standard deviation

Z = Probability factor (value of Z is depend on the probability)

Value of z 0 +1 +2 +3 -1 -2 -3
Probability (%) 50 84.13 97.72 99.87 15.87 2.28 0.13

Calculation:

Given,

Te = 10 days, σ = 2 days

Value of Z for 99.9% of probability = 3

∵ We know that, \(Z = \frac{{{T_s} - {T_e}}}{σ }\)

⇒ \(3 = \frac{{{T_s} - 10}}{2}\)

Ts = 16 days

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