Correct Answer - Option 1 : 16 days
Concept:
Probability can be calculated by using probability factor (Z) which is defined as,
\(Z = \frac{{{T_s} - {T_e}}}{σ }\)
Where, Ts = Schedule completion time
Te = Expected completion time
σ = Standard deviation
Z = Probability factor (value of Z is depend on the probability)
Value of z |
0 |
+1 |
+2 |
+3 |
-1 |
-2 |
-3 |
Probability (%) |
50 |
84.13 |
97.72 |
99.87 |
15.87 |
2.28 |
0.13 |
Calculation:
Given,
Te = 10 days, σ = 2 days
Value of Z for 99.9% of probability = 3
∵ We know that, \(Z = \frac{{{T_s} - {T_e}}}{σ }\)
⇒ \(3 = \frac{{{T_s} - 10}}{2}\)
Ts = 16 days